UKGC Data Reveals No Sustained Growth in UK Traffic to Illegal Gambling Sites Despite VPN Surge After Online Safety Act

On April 21, 2026, the UK Gambling Commission released fresh data that tracks UK player activity on illegal gambling sites, including online casinos, and what stands out most is the absence of any sustained growth over the past 21 months up to February 2026; instead, traffic levels have fluctuated without a clear upward trajectory, even as VPN usage has climbed following the implementation of the Online Safety Act.

Tim Livesley, Head of the Commission's Data Innovation Hub, presented these findings at the UKGC's Spring Evidence Conference in Birmingham, where industry representatives, HMRC officials, and even regulators from the Netherlands gathered to discuss the evolving landscape of online gambling oversight.

What's interesting here is how the data accounts for the rise in VPNs, tools players increasingly use to mask their locations and access restricted sites; researchers adjusted the figures using insights from Ofcom and Similarweb, ensuring a more accurate picture of obscured traffic that might otherwise skew perceptions.

Data on illegal gambling websites measured by estimated web traffic (total minutes spent on illegal sites) reveals no explosive increases, but rather a series of ups and downs that hover around baseline levels; for instance, total minutes spent showed peaks in certain months, yet those spikes quickly leveled off, preventing any long-term climb.

Observers note that this stability comes at a time when the Online Safety Act, rolled out to tighten controls on harmful online content, has prompted more UK players to turn to VPNs in an effort to bypass geo-blocks on unlicensed operators; despite that shift, the adjusted metrics indicate players aren't flocking en masse to these sites in greater numbers.

And while raw traffic might suggest otherwise at first glance, the Commission's sophisticated adjustments—drawing on Ofcom's broadband data and Similarweb's web analytics—paint a clearer story, one where VPN adoption correlates with fluctuations but not with overall growth.

Take the 21-month window: from early 2025 through February 2026, monthly traffic dipped below averages in some periods, then rebounded slightly, but never sustained momentum toward higher plateaus; experts who've analyzed similar datasets often point out that such patterns challenge assumptions about regulatory crackdowns driving underground booms.

The Online Safety Act, enforced progressively since late 2024, mandates platforms to block access to non-compliant gambling services, which has undeniably boosted VPN downloads among UK users; app store data from that era shows spikes in VPN installs coinciding with enforcement waves, yet the UKGC's report tempers concerns by showing that this hasn't translated into proportionally higher engagement on illegal platforms.

Tim Livesley highlighted during his conference presentation how the Data Innovation Hub cross-references multiple sources to unmask VPN-hidden activity, a method that's become crucial as tools like these proliferate; without those adjustments, figures might overestimate risks, but the reality, as presented, suggests containment efforts are holding steady.

But here's the thing: illegal sites, often operating from jurisdictions with lax oversight, continue to target UK players through aggressive marketing and promises of unrestricted play; the Commission's data, however, underscores that while some traffic persists, it doesn't snowball despite easier circumvention methods.

Conference attendees, including HMRC representatives focused on tax evasion tied to offshore operators, heard details on how these metrics inform future policy, with the Dutch regulator sharing comparable experiences from their own enforcement drives.

Adjusting for VPN-obscured traffic isn't straightforward, yet the UKGC's approach leverages Ofcom's comprehensive ISP logs alongside Similarweb's behavioral tracking, creating proxies for UK-originating visits that slip through standard detectors; this yields a dataset where estimated minutes on illegal casino domains remain bounded, fluctuating between familiar ranges rather than escalating.

Researchers discovered early on that unadjusted web analytics undercount UK involvement by up to 30% in VPN-heavy scenarios, which is why these layered corrections matter; the result? A 21-month trend line that's more wavy than steep, signaling no entrenched migration to unregulated spaces.

People who've followed UKGC reports over the years often notice how such innovations in data science keep pace with tech evasions, turning what could be blind spots into monitored territories; at the Birmingham conference, Livesley demoed visualizations that made these nuances accessible, sparking discussions on scaling similar techniques across Europe.

Industry reps in attendance left with reassurance that player shifts to illegal sites aren't accelerating, even post-Act; this stability allows licensed operators to focus on compliance enhancements without fearing massive market erosion, while regulators like the UKGC refine tools to stay ahead of adaptations.

Yet the data also flags persistent activity levels, reminding stakeholders that vigilance remains key; for example, certain months saw upticks tied to major sporting events, where illegal sites ramped up ads, but those normalized quickly under blocking measures.

HMRC's presence underscored fiscal angles, as unreported wins from offshore play represent lost revenue, though the lack of growth trends eases immediate pressures; the Dutch delegation, dealing with their own cross-border challenges, found parallels that could inform joint initiatives.

So turns out, in April 2026, this report lands as a measured update amid broader debates on digital borders; it doesn't declare victory over illicit traffic, but it does show containment where many expected chaos.

One case from the conference Q&A involved a query on crypto-integrated illegal casinos, where Livesley noted preliminary data showing similar non-growth patterns, hinting at wider applicability of the Hub's methods.

While focused on this 21-month span, the figures align with prior UKGC snapshots that tracked dips post-major crackdowns, reinforcing a narrative of regulatory efficacy; VPN usage, now a staple workaround (with adoption rates doubling in some demographics), hasn't cracked that resilience yet.

Experts observing from the audience emphasized how public awareness campaigns, paired with tech blocks, contribute to this equilibrium; players, it seems, weigh risks of unlicensed play—scams, no recourse—against licensed alternatives, keeping traffic in check.

And now, with the conference fresh in minds, expect follow-up analyses from Ofcom and Similarweb partners to validate these adjustments further; that's where the rubber meets the road for ongoing monitoring.

• No sustained upward trend in UK traffic to illegal sites over 21 months to February 2026.
• Adjustments for VPN traffic via Ofcom and Similarweb data show fluctuations, not growth.
• Presentation by Tim Livesley at Birmingham conference drew international interest.
• Context of rising VPN use post-Online Safety Act, yet stable engagement levels.
• Informs policy for UKGC, HMRC, and global regulators.

The UK Gambling Commission's April 21, 2026, data release offers a grounded perspective on illegal gambling traffic, revealing stability amid VPN proliferation and regulatory pressures; by adjusting for hidden activity through robust sources, the report debunks fears of a surge, showing instead that enforcement measures maintain balance over the 21-month period.

As Tim Livesley and conference participants discussed, these insights guide next steps, ensuring licensed markets thrive while illicit ones face checked advances; in the end, the figures speak clearly: no boom, just business as unusually steady.